Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
抗真菌葡萄品种的采用动态：一种实物期权方法
Adoption Dynamics of Fungus‐Resistant Grapevine Varieties: A Real Options Approach
摘要
Viticulture is a key economic sector in Europe, but responsible for vast amounts of fungicide use. Fungus‐resistant grapevine varieties are less susceptible to fungal diseases, reducing fungicide use by up to 80%. However, their adoption remains limited, despite their economic and environmental advantages. We develop a bio‐economic simulation model with a real options investment perspective to analyze farmers’ decisions to adopt resistant varieties, accounting for different risk factors (e.g., production, market, policy). We apply the model to the case of Swiss viticulture. Results indicate that in the short‐term, adoption barriers persist for the majority of farmers, with replanting occurring only when favorable conditions are met, such as low discount rates, high disease pressure, and available price premia. Conversely, we find that in the long‐term, as vines reach replacement age, resistant varieties are favored over traditional ones. Our findings further indicate that increases in disease pressure, for example, due to climate change, are likely to accelerate the early adoption of fungus‐resistant varieties. We highlight potential avenues for improving current support for replanting in Switzerland, for example, through market access and information provision. By integrating risk and managerial flexibility into a dynamic, real options decision‐making framework, this study provides new insights for designing effective policies to promote sustainable pest management in viticulture.
中文摘要
葡萄栽培是欧洲重要的经济部门，但也是大量杀菌剂使用的来源。抗真菌葡萄品种对真菌病害的敏感性较低，可将杀菌剂使用量减少高达80%。然而，尽管具有经济和环境优势，其采用率仍然有限。我们构建了一个结合实物期权投资视角的生物经济模拟模型，用于分析农户采纳抗性品种的决策，并考虑了不同风险因素（如生产、市场、政策）。我们将该模型应用于瑞士葡萄栽培案例。结果表明，短期内，大多数农户仍面临采用障碍，只有在满足低贴现率、高病害压力和可获得溢价等有利条件时才会进行重新种植。相反，我们发现长期来看，当葡萄藤达到更新树龄时，抗性品种比传统品种更受青睐。我们的研究进一步表明，病害压力的增加（例如因气候变化所致）可能加速抗真菌品种的早期采用。我们指出了改善瑞士当前重新种植支持政策的潜在途径，例如通过市场准入和信息提供。通过将风险和管理灵活性纳入动态的实物期权决策框架，本研究为设计促进葡萄栽培可持续病虫害管理的有效政策提供了新见解。