Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
长江三角洲的农业增长：1393–1953
Agricultural growth in the Yangzi Delta: 1393–1953
摘要
I construct the first annual-frequency dataset of agricultural output for China’s Yangzi Delta covering the period 1393–1953. Over six centuries, agriculture in the region expanded in total output but exhibited little per capita growth and no significant productivity improvement after the fifteenth century. Using the new data, I estimate representative rural household income and per capita GDP. The results indicate that by the late seventeenth century, both measures in the Yangzi Delta had fallen behind those of leading Western economies, including Britain, the Netherlands, and Italy. The timing of the Great Divergence thus lies between the estimates proposed by traditional Eurocentric scholars and those of the California School.
中文摘要
我构建了首个覆盖1393至1953年间中国长三角地区农业产出的年度频率数据集。在这六个世纪里，该地区农业总产出有所增长，但人均产出增长甚微，且自十五世纪后未见显著的生产率提升。利用这一新数据，我估算了代表性农村家庭收入及人均GDP。结果显示，至十七世纪末，长三角地区的这两项指标均已落后于包括英国、荷兰和意大利在内的西方主要经济体。因此，大分流的时点介于传统欧洲中心主义学者与加州学派提出的估计之间。