Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
风险与模糊偏好更新的演化视角
An Evolutionary Perspective on Updating Risk and Ambiguity Preferences
摘要
Using an evolutionary approach, we address the prominent tension in the literature that updating of ambiguity and nonexpected-utility preferences cannot, in general, be both dynamically consistent and consequentialist. Perhaps not surprisingly, evolutionary optimality requires dynamic consistency. The more subtle insight is the evolutionary optimality of systematic violations of consequentialism. We base our investigation on the model of adaptive preferences (Sadowski and Sarver 2024), which generalizes the model of Robson (1996) and nests variants of many well-known models in the literature. (JEL B52, D11, D81, D83)
中文摘要
采用演化方法，我们解决了文献中一个显著矛盾：在一般情况下，模糊性更新与非期望效用偏好无法同时满足动态一致性和后果主义。或许并不令人意外的是，演化最优性要求动态一致性。而更微妙的洞见在于，系统性违反后果主义的行为具有演化最优性。我们的研究基于适应性偏好模型（Sadowski and Sarver 2024），该模型推广了Robson（1996）的模型，并涵盖了文献中许多著名模型的变体。（JEL B52, D11, D81, D83）