Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
分析师关注度与盈利预测质量
Analyst visibility and earnings forecast quality
摘要
This study examines how a reduction in analysts’ visibility, resulting from brokerages’ switch to anonymous forecasts on Eikon, affects earnings forecast quality. Using a difference-in-differences design, we find that treatment analysts respond by issuing more accurate forecasts in the post-anonymization period. Treatment analysts who improve forecast quality the most can sustain visibility, as reflected in their coverage by the financial media, enhance their likelihood of being voted as star analysts, and induce greater client trading. These results are consistent with analysts’ incentives to offset the reduced visibility so as to advance their careers and increase trading commissions for their brokerages. We further show that treatment analysts use a set of visibility-enhancing strategies, including issuing broader and more frequent forecasts and setting bolder target prices. Our findings suggest that reduced visibility can prompt analysts to respond strategically in ways that can improve information quality.
中文摘要
本研究考察了因券商在Eikon平台上转向匿名预测而导致的分析师可见度下降如何影响盈利预测质量。采用双重差分设计，我们发现处理组分析师在匿名化后通过发布更准确的预测作出回应。预测质量提升最多的处理组分析师能够维持可见度，这体现在其被金融媒体报道、提升被评选为明星分析师的可能性，并带来更多客户交易。这些结果与分析师有动机抵消可见度下降以推进职业发展并增加所属券商交易佣金的解释相一致。我们进一步表明，处理组分析师采用了一系列提升可见度的策略，包括发布覆盖范围更广、频率更高的预测，以及设定更大胆的目标价。我们的发现表明，可见度下降可以促使分析师以能够改善信息质量的方式进行策略性回应。