Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
预期性生育
Anticipatory Fertility
摘要
We study fertility responses to employment shocks using unique Hungarian administrative data linking firm-level mass layoff and closure events to individual-level birth and abortion records. We show that the main fertility response occurs in anticipation and differs by shock type. The number of conceptions leading to births increases in the year preceding a mass layoff (when maternal employment protection is available), but not before a firm closure (without employment protection). We interpret this result as evidence of anticipatory fertility behavior: women tend to schedule childbirth when job loss can be avoided.
中文摘要
我们利用匈牙利独特的行政数据，将企业层面的大规模裁员和关闭事件与个人层面的生育及堕胎记录相链接，研究就业冲击对生育率的影响。结果显示，主要的生育反应发生在预期阶段，且因冲击类型而异。在大规模裁员前一年（当母亲享有就业保护时），导致生育的受孕数量有所增加，但在企业关闭前（无就业保护时）则无此现象。我们将此结果解释为预期性生育行为的证据：女性倾向于在能够避免失业时安排生育。