Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
砷与生育力：来自1900年英国啤酒中毒流行病的证据
Arsenic and fertility: Evidence from the 1900 English beer-poisoning epidemic
摘要
In 1900, thousands of people in England were poisoned by arsenic. The source was beer contaminated by tainted sugar. This paper examines how the poisoning affected birth rates in the affected areas, using an event study difference-in-difference design. The results show that the arsenic-in-beer epidemic caused a 10% drop in births in 1901, but the effect was short-lived. After about 28 weeks, birth rates returned to pre-epidemic levels. Evidence from the timing of the effect and a range of alternative mechanisms is most consistent with the epidemic reducing conceptions or early pregnancies, rather than operating through economic disruption or later gestational harm.
中文摘要
1900年，英格兰数千人因砷中毒而受害，其源头为被污染糖所掺杂的啤酒。本文采用事件研究双重差分设计，探讨了此次中毒事件对受影响地区出生率的影响。结果显示，1901年啤酒砷中毒疫情导致出生率下降10%，但此效应短暂，约28周后，出生率恢复至疫情前水平。基于效应时间点及一系列替代机制的证据，最符合的解释是疫情减少了受孕或早期妊娠，而非通过经济干扰或妊娠后期伤害发挥作用。