Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
对宏观经济的关注
Attention to the Macroeconomy*
摘要
We measure which economic topics are top of mind using quarterly German household and firm panels from 2020 to 2024, a period that spans the post-pandemic inflation surge and the subsequent disinflation. With these data, we study potential determinants and consequences of having inflation top of mind. In line with goal-directed attention, the likelihood that inflation is top of mind rises with proxies for its true payoff relevance. At the same time, prior experiences predict whether respondents have inflation and energy prices top of mind conditional on a large set of controls for payoff relevance, and this relationship strengthens when the environment becomes more inflationary. Having inflation top of mind predicts stronger increases in information acquisition and inflation expectations over the shock period. At odds with goal-optimality, having inflation top of mind is associated with expectations further away from multiple ex-ante benchmarks. Finally, both key determinants of having inflation top of mind—payoff relevance and prior experiences—are associated with stronger shifts of expectations away from these benchmarks over the shock period.
中文摘要
我们使用2020年至2024年的季度德国家庭和企业面板数据，衡量哪些经济议题最受关注；这一时期横跨疫情后的通胀飙升及随后的去通胀过程。基于这些数据，我们研究通胀最受关注的潜在决定因素及其后果。与目标导向型注意力相一致，通胀成为最受关注议题的可能性随其真实收益相关性的代理变量上升而提高。与此同时，在大量收益相关性控制变量条件下，既往经历仍可预测受访者是否最关注通胀和能源价格，并且当环境变得更具通胀性时，这一关系会增强。通胀最受关注预示着在冲击期间信息获取和通胀预期出现更强上升。与目标最优性不一致的是，通胀最受关注与预期偏离多个事前基准更远相关。最后，通胀最受关注的两个关键决定因素——收益相关性和既往经历——都与冲击期间预期偏离这些基准的更强变动相关。