Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
行为信号与信贷定价：来自信用卡的证据
Behavioral signals and credit pricing: Evidence from credit cards
摘要
We examine whether lenders incorporate behavioral signals into consumer credit pricing. Exploiting regulatory credit card reforms that altered the information content of a sophisticated credit card behavior, we show that borrowers exhibiting less sophisticated credit card usage subsequently experienced significantly higher default and bankruptcy rates across multiple consumer lending products. Despite this predictive power, lenders did not price this signal ex ante. Instead, contract terms adjusted only after repayment deterioration became observable through traditional credit metrics. These findings reveal a timing gap between observing predictive behavioral information and incorporating it into pricing decisions.
中文摘要
我们考察贷款方是否将行为信号纳入消费信贷定价。利用改变了一种复杂信用卡行为信息含量的监管信用卡改革，我们表明，表现出较少复杂信用卡使用的借款人事后会在多种消费信贷产品中经历显著更高的违约率和破产率。尽管这一信号具有预测力，贷款方并未在事前对此进行定价。相反，合同条款仅在还款恶化通过传统信用指标变得可观察之后才进行调整。这些发现揭示了在观察到具有预测力的行为信息与将其纳入定价决策之间存在时间差。