Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
欧洲农业政策评估中农场层面基于主体模型的行为与社会因素
Behavioural and social factors in farm-level agent-based models for European agricultural policy evaluations
摘要
Agent-based models are valuable tools for agricultural policy evaluation. They can represent the heterogeneity of farmers and farmer interactions and are especially useful when behavioural and social factors are integrated to represent farmers’ decision-making. We assess the potential of agent-based models by conducting a review of forty-eight agent-based models developed for European agriculture and a survey with twenty-six modellers and twenty-four policy stakeholders. We find that while agent-based models provide nuanced representations of farmers’ decision-making processes, there is a gap between what is currently implemented in models, what modellers consider important and what policymakers expect.
中文摘要
基于智能体的模型是农业政策评估的重要工具。这类模型能够刻画农户的异质性及其互动关系，尤其在整合行为与社会因素以表征农户决策过程时具有独特价值。我们通过梳理48个针对欧洲农业开发的智能体模型，并对26位建模者及24位政策利益相关方开展问卷调查，评估了此类模型的潜力。研究发现：尽管智能体模型能细致呈现农户决策过程，但当前模型的实际应用、建模者认为重要的要素与政策制定者的预期之间仍存在显著差距。