Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
市场主导型洪水风险配置的行为局限：中国城市中的损失正常化、投资贴现与规划主导的土地利用治理
Behavioural limits of market-led flood-risk allocation: Loss normalisation, investment discounting and planning-led land-use governance in urban China
摘要
Whether recurrent flood exposure deters demand for flood-exposed urban land, a deterrence logic well established in mature Anglo-American property markets, is a growing consideration for land-use planning under climate change. This question travels poorly to dense, platform-mediated Chinese urban housing markets, where households face repeated flooding at first hand while statutory hazard disclosure remains comparatively thin. Drawing on a pan-Chinese survey of 505 urban residents across 29 provinces, with 52 % in the coastal high-flood-risk belt, this paper develops and tests a structural model of housing purchase intention under urban flood risk. The model integrates a loss-normalisation block (perceived loss tolerability, investment discounting), a risk-cognition block (perceived flood risk, flood-information salience) and the proximal theory of planned behaviour. Covariance-based structural equation modelling yields three findings consequential for land-use planning. First, perceived loss tolerability raises purchase intention directly, while investment discounting raises it through attitude, so that both absorb the flood-risk signal rather than transmitting deterrence. Second, recurrent-event habituation and optimism bias depress perceived risk and feed both mechanisms, giving the levee effect a micro-level foundation. Third, the attitude-to-intention path is not significant, with subjective norm dominating intention, and objective flood knowledge does not moderate these effects. Taken together, the results suggest that demand-side responses alone are unlikely to steer development away from flood-exposed urban land, which points to a larger role for planning in risk-sensitive land allocation.
中文摘要
反复暴露于洪水是否会抑制对洪水易发城市土地的需求，这一在成熟英美房地产市场中已充分确立的威慑逻辑，正日益成为气候变化下土地利用规划的重要考量。然而，该问题难以直接移植到密集的、平台中介的中国城市住房市场，因为家庭虽亲身经历反复洪水，但法定灾害信息披露仍相对薄弱。本文基于一项覆盖中国29个省份505名城市居民的全国性调查（其中52%位于沿海高洪水风险带），构建并检验了城市洪水风险下购房意愿的结构模型。该模型整合了损失正常化模块（感知损失可容忍性、投资折价）、风险认知模块（感知洪水风险、洪水信息显著性）以及近端计划行为理论。基于协方差的结构方程建模得出三项对土地利用规划具有重要意义的发现。第一，感知损失可容忍性直接提高购房意愿，而投资折价通过态度提高购房意愿，因此二者均吸收洪水风险信号而非传递威慑效应。第二，反复事件习惯化与乐观偏差压低感知风险并助推上述两种机制，从而为堤坝效应提供了微观基础。第三，态度至意愿的路径不显著，主观规范主导意愿，且客观洪水知识并未调节这些效应。综合来看，结果表明仅靠需求侧反应不太可能引导开发远离洪水易发城市土地，这指向规划在风险敏感型土地配置中发挥更大作用。