Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
超越决定论：欧盟农业碳定价辩论中天气变率的考量
Beyond determinism: Accounting for weather variability in the carbon pricing debate for EU agriculture
摘要
Agriculture accounts for 11 per cent of EU greenhouse gas emissions, yet sectoral emissions have stagnated over the past two decades. This paper evaluates carbon pricing in EU agriculture by integrating stochastic yield variability into the CAPRI model. We assess how different carbon price levels affect emissions and outcome uncertainty. Results show that carbon pricing reduces emissions, and higher price levels are associated with lower uncertainty in policy outcomes. While expected results remain similar to deterministic simulations, stochastic modeling reveals greater regional and sectoral heterogeneity. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for production risk when designing agricultural climate policies.
中文摘要
摘要农业占欧盟温室气体排放的11%，但过去二十年间该行业排放量停滞不前。本文通过将随机产量波动性纳入CAPRI模型，评估了欧盟农业中的碳定价机制。我们分析了不同碳价水平对排放量和结果不确定性的影响。结果表明，碳定价能够减少排放，且更高的碳价水平与政策结果不确定性的降低相关。尽管预期结果与确定性模拟相似，但随机建模揭示了更大的区域和行业异质性。这些发现强调了在设计农业气候政策时考虑生产风险的重要性。