Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
超越GDP：量化气候变化对社会进步的异质性影响
Beyond GDP: Quantifying heterogeneous impact of climate change on social progress
摘要
This study examines the relationship between well-being and temperature across 167 countries from 1990 to 2019, employing the Social Progress Index (SPI) as a measure of well-being and social progress. Using a fixed-effects panel data framework, I study temperature impacts on social progress by modelling local and global weather anomalies simultaneously, capturing both within-country temporal and global climate variation. First, a statistically significant negative relationship exists between annual temperature anomalies and well-being, with a 1 °C global (local) mean temperature deviation leading to a 0.8068 (0.0929) point decline, respectively. Second, annual precipitation anomalies have no statistically significant effect on the SPI. Third, an increase in temperature anomaly has a more adverse impact in winter and spring than in other seasons. Fourth, poorer regions, hotter climates,global south, and countries with weak institutions are disproportionately affected by temperature deviations. Fifth, the impact of temperature on well-being persists over the medium term, most clearly through the global temperature anomalies.
中文摘要
本研究考察了1990年至2019年间167个国家幸福感与温度之间的关系，采用社会进步指数（SPI）作为幸福感和社会进步的衡量指标。运用固定效应面板数据框架，我通过同时建模局部和全球天气异常来研究温度对社会进步的影响，捕捉国内时间变化和全球气候变异。第一，年度温度异常与幸福感之间存在统计上显著的负相关关系，全球（局部）平均温度偏差1°C分别导致0.8068（0.0929）点的下降。第二，年度降水异常对SPI没有统计上显著的影响。第三，温度异常的上升在冬季和春季的不利影响大于其他季节。第四，较贫困地区、较热气候、全球南方以及制度薄弱的国家受温度偏差的影响不成比例地更大。第五，温度对幸福感的影响在中期持续存在，最明显地通过全球温度异常体现。