Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
构建全国市场：19世纪西班牙的交通与经济一体化
Building a National Market: Transport and Economic Integration in Nineteenth-Century Spain
摘要
Domestic market integration is central to economic growth, yet its nineteenth-century drivers remain debated. This article exploits newly constructed panel data on grain prices across 451 Spanish judicial districts (1847–1907) and a multimodal historical GIS dataset of roads, railroads, waterways, ports, and coastal routes to estimate district-pair transport costs via network analysis. Results show that transport improvements reduced average domestic transportation costs by 63 percent. To address the potential endogeneity of network expansion, we utilize an instrumental-variables strategy based on Roman-era infrastructure and geographic least-cost paths, identifying a transport-cost elasticity of price differentials of approximately 0.8. Interacting this elasticity with the 63 percent fall in transport costs implies that the transition to steam transport accounts for roughly 85 percent of the observed price convergence over this period. Counterfactual simulations further demonstrate that these gains were primarily driven by railroads, confirming that this technology was a key condition for overcoming Spain’s rugged geography and achieving a level of market integration comparable to that observed in the Western European core.
中文摘要
国内市场一体化是经济增长的核心，但其19世纪的驱动因素仍存争议。本文利用新构建的1847—1907年西班牙451个司法区粮食价格面板数据，以及涵盖道路、铁路、水路、港口和沿海航线的多模态历史GIS数据集，通过网络分析估算区对运输成本。结果表明，交通改善使国内平均运输成本下降了63%。为处理网络扩张的潜在内生性，我们采用基于罗马时期基础设施和地理最小成本路径的工具变量策略，识别出价格差异的运输成本弹性约为0.8。将该弹性与运输成本下降63%相结合意味着，向蒸汽运输的转变解释了这一时期观察到的价格收敛的大约85%。反事实模拟进一步表明，这些收益主要由铁路驱动，证实该技术是克服西班牙崎岖地理并实现与西欧核心地区相当的市场一体化水平的关键条件。