新能源企业产能失衡与违约风险

摘要

Against the background of the global energy transition, China's new energy (NE) industry has experienced a large-scale expansion. The concentrated release of firms' production capacity in the short term has led to structural or temporary supply-demand imbalances within the industry, resulting in mounting debt pressure and intensified default risk. In the face of weakening domestic market demand and escalating international trade frictions, examining the relationship between capacity imbalance and default risk among NE firms is of great significance for deepening the understanding of energy supply chain security. Based on firm-level panel data of NE enterprises from 2009 to 2023, this paper employs a high-dimensional fixed effects model to investigate the impact of capacity imbalance on distance to default. The results show that: (1) capacity imbalance reduces firms' distance to default, thereby increasing default risk; (2) the moderating effect analysis indicates that the traditional current ratio exacerbates default risk under capacity imbalance, while an improvement in fixed asset turnover can alleviate default pressure by optimizing asset allocation efficiency; and (3) capacity imbalance has a stronger effect on increasing default risk among firms with higher fixed asset ratios and state-owned enterprises. This study suggests establishing a dynamic capacity monitoring and risk warning mechanism to promote the healthy and sustainable development of the NE industry.