Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
CEO行为诚信与企业信用评级：来自美国公司的证据
CEO behavioral integrity and corporate credit ratings: evidence from U.S. Firms
摘要
This study examines whether CEO behavioural integrity (BI) – the alignment between a CEO’s words and subsequent actions – is associated with corporate credit ratings. Using 8,214 shareholder letters from U.S. public firms over 2013–2023, we construct a hybrid BI index that combines dictionary-based causation measures with FinBERT embeddings, residualized on observable firm, CEO, and narrative-style determinants. We find that higher CEO BI is consistently associated with more favourable credit ratings. This relation is robust across alternative specifications and supplementary analyses, including ordered logit models, entropy balancing, and CEO turnover-based tests, and persists for up to three future periods, albeit with gradually declining strength. Channel analyses suggest two overarching pathways: a stronger information environment – including lower information risk and higher disclosure quality – and reduced managerial opportunism. The relation is more pronounced when financial distress, weak governance, information opacity, CEO risk-taking incentives, or limited rating-agency access make managerial credibility more salient. CEO BI is also associated with lower bond yield spreads, indicating that its information content extends to debt-market pricing. Overall, our findings identify CEO behavioural integrity as a meaningful dimension of managerial credibility that is incorporated into credit assessments and financing outcomes.
中文摘要
本研究考察首席执行官行为诚信（BI）——即首席执行官言行之间的一致性——是否与企业信用评级相关。我们使用2013—2023年美国上市公司8，214封股东信，构建了一个混合BI指数，该指数将基于词典的因果测量与FinBERT嵌入相结合，并对可观测的公司、首席执行官和叙事风格决定因素进行残差化处理。我们发现，更高的首席执行官BI始终与更有利的信用评级相关。这一关系在替代设定和补充分析中均保持稳健，包括有序logit模型、熵平衡以及基于首席执行官变更的检验，并且在未来最多三个期间内持续存在，尽管强度逐渐下降。渠道分析表明两条总体路径：更强的信息环境——包括更低的信息风险和更高的披露质量——以及减少的管理层机会主义。当财务困境、弱治理、信息不透明、首席执行官风险承担激励或有限的评级机构接触使管理层可信度更加突出时，这一关系更为显著。首席执行官BI还与更低的债券收益率利差相关，表明其信息含量延伸至债务市场定价。总体而言，我们的发现将首席执行官行为诚信识别为管理层可信度的一个有意义维度，并被纳入信用评估和融资结果之中。