Econ Papers Daily / 研究评论
中右翼政党追随极右翼得不偿失：来自德国2025年选举的证据
Chasing far-right does not pay for the centre-right parties: Evidence from Germany’s 2025 election
摘要
Establishment parties are often urged to win voters over from populist parties by shifting their policy positions towards them. Based on the 2025 German federal election, this column simulates what would happen when the centre-right CDU changes its policies and the populist radical-right AfD responds. If the AfD stood still, a modest shift to the right would win the CDU a fifth of AfD voters, but the AfD would respond by moving further right, undoing the CDU’s gain. This strategy can thus leave the CDU worse off while pulling politics further to the right. Once the AfD's response is anticipated, moving right is no longer optimal for the CDU.
中文摘要
主流政党常被敦促通过将政策立场向民粹政党靠拢来争取其选民。基于2025年德国联邦选举，本专栏模拟了当中右翼基民盟改变其政策且民粹激进右翼选择党作出回应时会发生什么。如果选择党原地不动，温和右移将为基民盟赢得五分之一的选择党选民，但选择党会通过进一步右移来回应，从而抵消基民盟的收益。因此，这一策略可能使基民盟处境更糟，同时将政治进一步拉向右翼。一旦预期到选择党的回应，右移对基民盟而言就不再是最优选择。