Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
2004年印度洋海啸的生育影响
Childbirth Effects of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami
摘要
This paper evaluates the effect of in utero exposure to the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami on birth outcomes in Indonesia. Exploiting variation in the timing of exposure, we find that the probability of a successful pregnancy drops by 5.4 percentage points (pp), while miscarriages increase by 5.0 pp for those exposed in the first trimester of pregnancy. Gestation length shortens by 0.28 months, and the likelihood of preterm birth rises by 5.4 pp. We find suggestive evidence that post‐disaster health investments by households may have shielded later cohorts from harmful effects, while measures of maternal health and socioeconomic status have limited explanatory power. Our results suggest the importance of considering fetal loss as a first‐order cost in natural disasters and highlight that facilitating household investment in health through various policies may mitigate negative birth effects in the aftermath.
中文摘要
本文评估了2004年印度洋海啸的宫内暴露对印度尼西亚出生结局的影响。利用暴露时间上的变异，我们发现，对于妊娠头三个月暴露者，成功妊娠的概率下降5.4个百分点（pp），而流产增加5.0个百分点。妊娠期长度缩短0.28个月，早产的可能性上升5.4个百分点。我们发现有提示性证据表明，灾后家庭的健康投资可能使较晚出生的队列免受有害影响，而母亲健康和社会经济状况的测度解释力有限。我们的结果表明，将胎儿丢失视为自然灾害中的首要成本十分重要，并强调通过多种政策促进家庭健康投资可能减轻灾后对出生的负面影响。