Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
中国在墨西哥的投资：贸易战、近岸外包与基于地方的政策
Chinese Investment in Mexico: Trade Wars, Nearshoring and Place‐Based Policies
摘要
This paper investigates the impact of the first Trump administration's (2016–2022) US‐China Trade War on the sectoral composition and geographic allocation of Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) in Mexico. Leveraging a novel dataset of Chinese investment projects (2001–2024) and exploiting product‐level variation in US tariff exposure, we implement a difference‐in‐differences design to identify causal effects. The analysis reveals three key findings. First, Chinese firms responded to increased US tariffs by relocating production to Mexico (i.e., nearshoring), with sectors more exposed to the Trade War (i.e., receiving larger tariff hikes) having significantly higher Chinese FDI inflows. Second, these effects emerge with a lag of approximately four to five years following tariff imposition. Third, place‐based policies significantly influenced the geography of Chinese investment: Mexico's Zona Libre de la Frontera Norte program altered the relative attractiveness for Chinese FDI of the affected regions compared to others. The findings highlight how global trade disputes interact with place‐based policies to shape investment patterns, offering lessons for developing economies seeking to attract nearshoring FDI while balancing employment and regional development objectives.
中文摘要
本文考察了第一届特朗普政府时期（2016—2022年）美中贸易战对中国在墨西哥对外直接投资（FDI）的部门构成和地理分布的影响。我们利用一套关于中国投资项目（2001—2024年）的新颖数据集，并借助产品层面美国关税暴露度的差异，采用双重差分设计来识别因果效应。分析揭示了三个关键发现。第一，中国企业通过将生产转移至墨西哥（即近岸外包）来应对美国关税上升，受贸易战影响更大（即面临更大幅度关税上调）的部门获得了显著更高的中国FDI流入。第二，这些效应在关税实施后大约四至五年才滞后显现。第三，基于地方的政策显著影响了中国投资的地理分布：墨西哥的北部边境自由区（Zona Libre de la Frontera Norte）项目改变了受影响地区相对于其他地区对中国FDI的相对吸引力。这些发现凸显了全球贸易争端如何与基于地方的政策相互作用以塑造投资模式，为寻求吸引近岸外包FDI、同时平衡就业与区域发展目标的发展中经济体提供了经验教训。