Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
更清洁但更不稳定的能源？煤电厂退役对电力批发市场竞争的影响
Cleaner but Volatile Energy? The Effect of Coal Plant Retirement on Market Competition in the Wholesale Electricity Market
摘要
The energy transition from coal to gas is reshaping the power sector to rely more on gas generation, which is cleaner but has more variable input costs. Using counterfactual analysis, I study the competitive effects of this transition, by considering several transition paths that differ in the types of firms involved in retiring coal plants and investing in gas plants. I show that the variable nature of the marginal cost of gas generation creates an environment in which market power could increase after the transition. However, the transition's impact on competition depends on the characteristics of the firms investing in new gas generation; the adverse impact is mitigated under a well‐planned transition that leads to a more competitive industry structure.
中文摘要
从煤炭向天然气的能源转型正重塑电力行业，使其更加依赖天然气发电——这种发电方式更清洁，但投入成本波动性更大。通过反事实分析，本文研究了这一转型的竞争效应，考虑了若干种不同的转型路径，这些路径在参与退役燃煤电厂和投资天然气电厂的企业类型上存在差异。研究表明，天然气发电边际成本的波动性特征创造了一种环境，使得转型后市场势力可能增强。然而，转型对竞争的影响取决于投资新建天然气发电企业的特征；在精心规划的转型路径下，这种不利影响会得到缓解，从而形成更具竞争性的行业结构。