Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
变暖世界中的寒潮冲击：家庭气候适应与电力需求的区域差异
Cold shocks in a warming world: Regional disparities in household climate adaptation and electricity demand
摘要
Climate change is intensifying temperature extremes worldwide and reshaping electricity demand, yet the impacts of extreme cold remain underexplored, particularly in regions without centralized heating. Using China as a large, climatically diverse case with substantial regional, infrastructural, and income-level heterogeneity, we analyze over two decades of data from more than 300,000 urban households to estimate nonlinear temperature–electricity responses and their regional and income heterogeneity. Results indicate that extreme temperatures significantly increase electricity demand in southern China, with cold extremes exerting a markedly stronger effect than heat extremes, while northern households under centralized heating display minimal sensitivity. Income inequalities exacerbate adaptation challenges, disproportionately affecting low-income households. Coupling these estimates with CMIP6 climate projections based on multi-year averages over 2090–2099, we find that national electricity demand could rise by up to 15.0%, while demand in southern China may increase by as much as 65.3%, driven predominantly by intensifying cold extremes, with low-income households bearing the greatest burden. These results demonstrate that cold-related risks constitute an overlooked but globally relevant driver of future electricity demand and provide evidence to inform climate-resilient and equitable adaptation strategies across regions facing diverse climatic and institutional conditions.
中文摘要
气候变化正在加剧全球范围内的极端气温并重塑电力需求，但极端寒冷的影响仍未得到充分研究，尤其是在缺乏集中供暖的地区。本文以中国作为气候多样、在区域、基础设施和收入水平上具有显著异质性的大型案例，分析来自30多万城市家庭二十余年的数据，估计气温—电力响应的非线性特征及其区域和收入异质性。结果表明，极端气温显著推高中国南方地区的电力需求，其中极端寒冷的影响明显强于极端高温，而集中供暖条件下的北方家庭则表现出极低的敏感性。收入不平等加剧了适应挑战，对低收入家庭的影响尤为严重。将这些估计结果与基于2090—2099年多年平均值的CMIP6气候预估相结合，我们发现全国电力需求可能上升至多15.0%，而中国南方地区的需求可能增加高达65.3%，其主要驱动因素是日益加剧的极端寒冷，且低收入家庭承受的负担最重。这些结果表明，寒冷相关风险是未来电力需求中一个被忽视但具有全球相关性的驱动因素，并为面临多样气候和制度条件的各地区制定气候韧性和公平的适应策略提供了证据。