Econ Papers Daily / 工作论文
大学成功：理解经济援助、贷款、准备和激励的作用
College Success: Understanding the Roles of Financial Aid, Loans, Preparation, and Incentives
摘要
Over the past four decades, the earnings gap between college graduates and non-graduates has widened substantially, prompting interest in policies aimed at promoting higher education among low-income students. A key challenge for these policies is the high college dropout rate. This paper develops a dynamic model of college enrollment and completion with rich individual heterogeneity to assess how various factors influence college attendance, dropout, and graduation. We estimate the model using data from longitudinal surveys, results of quasi-experimental studies on grant aid, and large-scale randomized controlled trials. We use the model to simulate the effects of tuition subsidies, college loans, financial incentives, and increased pre-college skills on attendance and completion. We find moderate effects of most unconditional financial policies on attendance, with small effects on completion conditional on attendance. By contrast, some merit-based incentives, such as forgiving student loans upon receipt of a bachelor’s degree, have substantial effects. However, this type of policy and other financial subsidies accrue even more than the others to students from relatively wealthy backgrounds. Overall, it appears infeasible to design a financial aid policy that is simultaneously effective in raising attainment and fiscally progressive. By comparison, we find that the greatest potential for increasing attainment could come from better preparing students for college.
中文摘要
在过去四十年中，大学毕业生与非毕业生之间的收入差距大幅扩大，这引发了人们对旨在促进低收入学生接受高等教育的政策的兴趣。这些政策面临的一个关键挑战是高大学辍学率。本文建立了一个包含丰富个体异质性的大学入学和完成学业的动态模型，以评估各种因素如何影响大学入学、辍学和毕业。我们使用纵向调查数据、关于助学金准实验研究的结果以及大规模随机对照试验来估计该模型。我们使用该模型模拟学费补贴、大学贷款、经济激励和增加大学前技能对入学和完成学业的影响。我们发现大多数无条件财政政策对入学有中等影响，而对以入学为条件的完成学业影响较小。相比之下，一些基于成绩的激励措施，例如在获得学士学位时免除学生贷款，具有显著影响。然而，与其他政策相比，这类政策和其他财政补贴更多地惠及来自相对富裕背景的学生。总体而言，设计一项既能有效提高受教育程度又在财政上具有累进性的经济援助政策似乎不可行。相比之下，我们发现提高受教育程度的最大潜力可能来自更好地帮助学生为大学做好准备。