Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
冲突与农业绩效：来自缅甸的证据
Conflict and Agricultural Performance: Evidence From Myanmar
摘要
Following the February 2021 military coup, armed conflict in Myanmar surged by more than 2000%. Against this backdrop, this study contributes to the literature by investigating how the association between conflict and agricultural performance varies by cropping period—planting, mid‐season or harvest—during two subsequent 2021 and 2022 monsoon seasons. Overall, each additional conflict incident in a township is associated with declines of 0.8% in output and 0.7% in yield, with marginal associations about twice as large in the main rice‐growing Delta region. Given that there were, on average, 20 conflict incidents per township nationwide and 8 in the Delta, these estimates imply annual cumulative declines of roughly 16% in output and 14% in yield nationally and 11% and 9%, respectively, in the Delta. The negative correlation between armed conflict and rice production varies across cropping stages, with mid‐season conflicts, when most input application activities occur, linked to the largest reductions in monsoon rice production, both nationally and in the Delta. Our results suggest that conflict‐related disruptions may operate through different adjustment margins across regions, with reductions in fertiliser use and extension access in the Delta and lower overall farm expenditure at the national level; however, our data cannot fully disentangle these channels, and further work with more granular price and expenditure data is needed to pin down and quantify the importance of each margin. These findings underscore the need for policies that enhance resilience and safeguard production in conflict‐affected agricultural systems.
中文摘要
2021年2月军事政变后，缅甸武装冲突激增超过2000%。在此背景下，本研究通过考察冲突与农业表现之间的关联如何随种植期——播种期、中期或收获期——在随后2021年和2022年两个季风季中变化，为相关文献作出贡献。总体而言，一个乡镇每增加一次冲突事件，与产出下降0.8%和单产下降0.7%相关，而在主要水稻种植区三角洲地区，边际关联约为此两倍。鉴于全国平均每个乡镇有20次冲突事件、三角洲地区有8次，这些估计意味着全国产出和单产每年累计下降约16%和14%，三角洲地区分别下降11%和9%。武装冲突与水稻生产之间的负相关在不同种植阶段存在差异，中期冲突——即大多数投入品施用活动发生的时期——与全国和三角洲地区季风水稻生产的最大降幅相关。我们的结果表明，与冲突相关的扰动可能通过不同地区的不同调整边际发挥作用，三角洲地区表现为化肥使用和推广服务获取减少，全国层面则表现为农场总支出降低；然而，我们的数据无法完全区分这些渠道，需要利用更精细的价格和支出数据开展进一步研究，以确定并量化每个边际的重要性。这些发现凸显了制定增强韧性并保障受冲突影响农业系统生产的政策的必要性。