Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
从上方趋同：当全球追赶反映为回落
Convergence from Above: When Global Catch-Up Reflects Falling Back
摘要
Narrower international income gaps are usually read as evidence that poorer economies are catching up. Yet economies that began ahead can also narrow those gaps by losing relative ground. A variance decomposition shows that economies initially above the mean account for close to half of gross compression since 1990, consistently across horizons from one to ten years. Compression is concentrated in both income tails. Falling back need not mean becoming poorer. Most economies contributing from above continue to grow at longer horizons. Slower capital deepening and productivity growth accompany these episodes. Historical IMF forecasts add evidence on persistence. Downgrades that survive successive vintages predict weaker subsequent growth, and cumulative revisions to expected output levels are more informative than terminal-growth revisions. A positive fitted trajectory gap is also associated with subsequent banking distress; debt and sovereign-default correlations are less stable. Global convergence can therefore combine successful catch-up with persistent weaknesses among economies previously ahead, with different implications for growth analysis and policy.
中文摘要
国际收入差距缩小通常被解读为较贫穷经济体正在追赶的证据。然而，原本领先的经济体也可能通过相对失势来缩小这些差距。一项方差分解显示，自1990年以来，初始高于均值的经济体贡献了总压缩量的近一半，且在一年至十年的各时间跨度上均保持一致。压缩集中在收入分布的两端。回落并不一定意味着变得更贫穷。多数从上方贡献压缩的经济体在较长时间跨度上仍持续增长。这些情形伴随着资本深化和生产率增长的放缓。国际货币基金组织的历史预测为持续性提供了额外证据。历经多次预测版本仍存续的下调预测预示着随后更弱的增长，而对预期产出水平的累积修正比终端增长修正更具信息含量。正向的拟合轨迹差距也与随后的银行业困境相关；债务与主权违约的相关性则较不稳定。因此，全球趋同可能同时包含成功的追赶与先前领先经济体的持续疲弱，这对增长分析和政策具有不同含义。