Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
昂贵的贝叶斯乐观主义
Costly Bayesian optimism
摘要
People often deviate from Bayesian updating by processing information in an optimistic manner. In such optimistic information processing, people tend to selectively incorporate information that is favorable to them. Furthermore, it is known that such selective belief updating imposes psychological costs on them. In this paper, we model optimistic belief updating with psychological costs and provide axiomatic foundations for it. Our model includes Bayesian updating as a special case while allowing for a unified axiomatization of various forms of optimistic information processing by modifying certain axioms.
中文摘要
人们往往通过乐观的方式处理信息，从而偏离贝叶斯更新。在这种乐观的信息处理过程中，人们倾向于有选择地吸收对自己有利的信息。此外，已知这种选择性信念更新会给他们带来心理成本。在本文中，我们构建了带有心理成本的乐观信念更新模型，并为其提供了公理化基础。我们的模型将贝叶斯更新作为特例包含在内，同时通过修改某些公理，实现了对各种乐观信息处理形式的统一公理化。