Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
高成本监管，低效结果：欧盟毁林法规对全球大豆贸易的影响
Costly regulation, minimal results: The EU’s deforestation regulation effect on global soy trade
摘要
The European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) seeks to reduce deforestation by restricting market access to deforestation-embodied soy products in the EU market. The main concern is that such restrictions could shift the soy trade to unregulated non-EU markets. To shed light on this issue, we employ a gravity model, treating the EUDR compliance costs as additional trade costs for exports to the EU. We find that stricter compliance costs reallocate soy exports from South America toward non-EU markets, mainly China, divert the EU imports toward North America, and increase the prices of soy faced by EU soy users. Under the counterfactual scenario in which South America does not comply with the regulation, EU consumers face even larger price increases, while South American countries experience minimal terms-of-trade losses. Our analysis suggests that trade reallocation to an unregulated market could potentially dilute the impact of the EUDR, making it less effective in directly reducing deforestation linked to soy production.
中文摘要
欧盟毁林法规（EUDR）旨在通过限制含有毁林成分的大豆产品进入欧盟市场来减少森林砍伐。主要担忧在于此类限制可能导致大豆贸易转向不受监管的非欧盟市场。为阐明这一问题，我们采用引力模型，将EUDR合规成本视为对欧盟出口的额外贸易成本。研究发现：更严格的合规成本促使南美大豆出口向非欧盟市场（主要是中国）转移，导致欧盟进口转向北美市场，并推高欧盟大豆用户面临的价格。在反事实情景中，若南美不遵守该法规，欧盟消费者将面临更大的价格上涨，而南美国家仅遭受微小的贸易条件损失。我们的分析表明，贸易向未受监管市场的重新配置可能削弱EUDR的效果，使其在直接减少与大豆生产相关的毁林方面效力降低。