Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
流动性不足的住房市场中的信贷与库存
Credit and inventories in illiquid housing markets
摘要
Wealthier, risk-averse buyers pay more to speed up transactions in competitive search markets. This, coupled with forward-looking intermediaries who hold vacant homes overnight, implies that a credit expansion produces a boom in prices that slowly recedes over time. This boom is due to a combination of two effects. First, search and matching frictions imply that buyers are willing to pay a higher price to trade faster, not only to consume housing services. Second, the fact that intermediaries are forward-looking implies that trading probabilities today depend on the future evolution of prices. Since agents forecast that prices are higher than in the initial steady state, they turn to trading today. Our theory produces a boom in prices that slowly recedes and a gradual rise of homeownership rate.
中文摘要
更富裕且风险规避的买家在竞争性搜索市场中愿意支付更高价格以加速交易。这一现象，加之持有空置房屋过夜的具有前瞻性的中介机构，意味着信贷扩张会引发价格繁荣，随后随时间缓慢回落。这种繁荣源于两种效应的结合。首先，搜索与匹配摩擦意味着买家不仅为了消费住房服务，还为了更快达成交易而愿意支付更高价格。其次，中介机构的前瞻性意味着今日的交易概率取决于价格的未来走势。由于主体预测价格高于初始稳态水平，他们转向今日交易。我们的理论产生了价格缓慢回落及住房拥有率逐步上升的繁荣景象。