Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
全球清洁能源市场的跨境风险联动与多维网络韧性：来自高阶下行联动网络的证据
Cross-border risk co-movement and multidimensional network resilience in global clean energy markets: Evidence from a higher-order downside co-movement network
摘要
The globalization of clean energy investment has intensified cross-market risk dependence, making the resilience of clean energy financial networks increasingly important. This study constructs a higher-order downside co-movement network for nine global clean energy equity markets using firm-level data for 829 companies from January 2013 to March 2025. Free-float-market-capitalization-weighted indices and the 5% asymmetric-slope CAViaR model are used to measure market-level downside tail risk, while ERA5 meteorological observations and a TVP-VAR framework are used to evaluate the resistance and recovery of system-level network topology and market-specific network roles to climate physical risk shocks. The results show that higher-order relations account for 75.0% of the retained baseline network, although their numerical prevalence and weighted contribution evolve differently. Major shocks are associated with distinct network reconfigurations: the COVID-19 episode sharply strengthens downside co-movement and shifts dominant relations toward higher-order configurations, whereas the U.S. Paris Agreement withdrawal announcement broadens relation coverage while the dominant relations remain largely pairwise. Climate-shock resilience is also multidimensional: network breadth exhibits stronger resistance and faster recovery than average relation strength, while Europe shows the strongest market-level network-role resilience and Brazil the weakest. More generally, network importance does not mechanically imply greater climate vulnerability. These findings provide a higher-order network perspective for monitoring systemic downside risk and assessing climate resilience in global clean energy markets.
中文摘要
清洁能源投资的全球化加剧了跨市场风险依赖，使清洁能源金融网络的韧性日益重要。本研究利用2013年1月至2025年3月间829家公司的企业层面数据，构建了全球九个清洁能源股票市场的高阶下行联动网络。采用自由流通市值加权指数和5%非对称斜率CAViaR模型测度市场层面下行尾部风险，同时运用ERA5气象观测数据和TVP-VAR框架评估系统层面网络拓扑结构及市场特定网络角色对气候物理风险冲击的抵抗力和恢复力。结果表明，高阶关系占保留基线网络的75.0%，尽管其数值普遍性和加权贡献的演变方式不同。重大冲击伴随着不同的网络重构：新冠疫情期间下行联动急剧增强，主导关系转向高阶构型，而美国宣布退出《巴黎协定》则扩大了关系覆盖范围，但主导关系仍以成对关系为主。气候冲击韧性同样具有多维性：网络广度比平均关系强度表现出更强的抵抗力和更快的恢复力，而欧洲在市场层面网络角色韧性上表现最强，巴西最弱。更一般地，网络重要性并不机械地意味着更大的气候脆弱性。这些发现为监测全球清洁能源市场的系统性下行风险和评估气候韧性提供了高阶网络视角。