Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
去集中化整合？空间集中、贸易通道、地方基础与福利
De-concentrating integration? Spatial concentration, trade access, local fundamentals, and welfare
摘要
Why are populations more spatially concentrated in some countries than in others? And why does that concentration change over time? I study how international trade integration affects the within-country spatial allocation of population and the welfare implications of these reallocations. A one-sector quantitative spatial model isolates a key mechanism: lower international trade costs disproportionately benefit regions with high foreign import dependence, which tend to be less populated regions within their countries. For greater realism, I then estimate a two-sector extension with non-homothetic preferences, allowing sectoral composition to adjust endogenously while retaining regional differences in trade access and local fundamentals. Counterfactuals imply that external integration reduces spatial concentration on average, raises aggregate welfare, and modestly tilts within-country welfare gains toward peripheral regions. In a decomposition of 1990–2005 concentration changes, trade-cost and productivity changes account for a modest share of cross-country variation, while inferred amenity changes capture most of the remainder.
中文摘要
为什么有些国家的人口在空间上比其他国家更为集中？为什么这种集中程度会随时间变化？我研究国际贸易一体化如何影响国家内部人口的空间分布，以及这些重新配置对福利的影响。一个单部门定量空间模型揭示了关键机制：较低的国际贸易成本不成比例地惠及那些对外国进口依赖度高的地区，而这些地区往往是其国内人口较少的区域。为增强现实性，我随后估计了一个具有非齐次偏好的两部门扩展模型，允许部门结构内生调整，同时保留区域间贸易准入和地方基本条件的差异。反事实分析表明，外部一体化平均降低了空间集中度，提高了总体福利，并适度地将国内福利收益向边缘地区倾斜。在对1990年至2005年集中度变化的分解中，贸易成本和生产率的变动解释了跨国差异的适度份额，而推断的便利性变化则解释了其余大部分差异。