Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
去工业化与人口变化：来自大型工厂关闭和裁员的影响
Deindustrialization and demographic change: Evidence from big plant closures and downsizing
摘要
We estimate the causal effect of big manufacturing plant closures and downsizing on the socioeconomic composition of Canadian cities between 2001 and 2021. Our instrumental variables estimates show that big manufacturing plant closures and downsizing—large local labour demand shocks—lead to less population growth and a shift in the demographic composition of cities toward an older population and less families. We find no other robust sociodemographic changes following big manufacturing plant closures. Exploiting heterogeneity across cities, we also find no robust evidence of city‐level characteristics that mitigate the negative effects of large local labour demand shocks.
中文摘要
我们估计了2001年至2021年间，大型制造工厂关闭和裁员对加拿大城市社会经济构成的因果效应。我们的工具变量估计表明，大型制造工厂关闭和裁员——即大规模的本地劳动力需求冲击——导致人口增长放缓，并使城市人口结构向老年人口和更少家庭的方向转变。我们发现，大型制造工厂关闭后，并未出现其他稳健的社会人口变化。通过利用城市间的异质性，我们还发现，没有稳健的证据表明城市层面的特征能够缓解大规模本地劳动力需求冲击的负面影响。