Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
人口老龄化与全球加工食品贸易格局重塑
Demographic Ageing and the Reshaping of Global Processed Food Trade
摘要
This study examines how demographic ageing shapes global processed food trade by estimating trade‐income elasticities (IEs) that incorporate the influence of the aged population share, within a structural gravity model. The findings indicate that ageing amplifies IEs for processed food imports in both developed and developing economies while dampening them for domestic processed foods in developing economies. Import IEs in developed economies remain above unity, while those in developing economies are projected to rise from about 0.6 to nearly 1.3 in coming decades. Country‐ and product‐level estimates reveal substantial heterogeneity, with pronounced increases in import IEs for major economies and for processed meat, fish, fruit and vegetables, cocoa and sugar confectionery, and drinks. The contrasting responses of imported and domestically supplied processed foods may partly reflect differences in product composition. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for demographic ageing and product‐level heterogeneity when assessing future processed food trade.
中文摘要
本研究通过在一个结构引力模型中估计纳入老年人口占比影响的贸易收入弹性（IEs），考察人口老龄化如何塑造全球加工食品贸易。研究结果表明，老龄化会放大发达经济体和发展中经济体加工食品进口的收入弹性，同时抑制发展中经济体国内加工食品的收入弹性。发达经济体的进口收入弹性仍高于1，而发展中经济体的进口收入弹性预计在未来数十年内将从约0.6上升至接近1.3。国家层面和产品层面的估计显示出显著异质性，主要经济体以及加工肉类、鱼类、水果和蔬菜、可可和糖制糖果及饮料的进口收入弹性明显上升。进口加工食品与国内供给加工食品的相反反应可能部分反映了产品构成上的差异。这些发现凸显了在评估未来加工食品贸易时考虑人口老龄化和产品层面异质性的重要性。