吞噬未来：埃塞俄比亚的蝗灾与教育中断

摘要

I study the impact of locust swarms on secondary education in Ethiopia. Combining high-resolution spatial data on locust swarm activity with administrative records from secondary schools, I use a difference-in-differences event-study design to identify the causal effects of locust shocks. I find that locust shocks reduce secondary school enrollment and completion by approximately 9.1% and 9.5%, respectively, while increasing the secondary school dropout rate by about 2.9 percentage points. These effects are particularly pronounced in remote and highly agriculture-dependent woredas. Further analysis provides suggestive evidence that these educational disruptions are associated with agricultural income losses, increases in local food prices, and declines in junior secondary school enrollment and completion. These findings highlight how biological disasters can disrupt educational progress in developing countries.