Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
分离风险与时间以实现最优预防
Disentangling risk and time for optimal prevention
摘要
We study the effect of prudence on optimal prevention in two periods with Kreps and Porteus (1978) and Selden (1978) (KPS) preferences. We use consumption smoothing as the benchmark and consider risk-averse decision-makers. In this framework, prudence has a positive effect on prevention, generalizing findings of Menegatti (2009). We extend this result to risk lovers and comparative risk aversion. When saving is endogenized, the preference over the timing of uncertainty resolution becomes irrelevant for prevention, and only the curvature of marginal utility matters. This result allows us to identify a class of decision-makers who are prudent in the KPS model but whose prevention effort coincides with that of a risk-neutral agent. Our findings highlight that the structure of intertemporal preferences critically shapes the link between prudence and prevention.
中文摘要
本文研究在Kreps与Porteus（1978）及Selden（1978）（KPS）偏好框架下，审慎性对两期最优预防行为的影响。以消费平滑为基准，我们考察风险厌恶型决策者。在此框架中，审慎性对预防行为具有正向促进作用，从而推广了Menegatti（2009）的研究结论。我们将该结论拓展至风险偏好型决策者及比较风险厌恶情形。当储蓄内生化时，不确定性解决的时间偏好对预防行为不再具有影响，仅边际效用曲率发挥作用。这一发现使我们能够识别出KPS模型中具有审慎性、但其预防努力水平与风险中性主体一致的决策者群体。研究结果凸显跨期偏好结构对审慎性与预防行为关联性的关键塑造作用。