Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
企业能否从云中获益？合同雇佣与计算机资本：来自降雨冲击的证据
Do clouds have a silicon lining for firms? Contract hiring and computer capital: evidence from rainfall shocks
摘要
How does technology adoption in developing countries influence firms' use of flexible, low‐protection labour when local demand fluctuates? This paper studies how computer capital intensity moderates firms' use of contract workers in response to exogenous, weather‐driven demand shocks. Using panel data on Indian manufacturing firms from 1999–2000 to 2009–2010, we combine firm‐level information on computer capital stocks with district‐level rainfall shocks that shift agricultural incomes and, in turn, local demand for manufacturing goods. We find that in response to positive transitory demand shocks, firms with above‐average computer capital shares hire 2.32 fewer contract workers than those with below‐average shares, representing an 11.33% difference relative to mean contract employment. This effect primarily impacts workers in manufacturing activities rather than peripheral services. Our results remain robust across various alternative measures of computer capital intensity, including exogenous measures derived from the industry‐level US computer capital expenditure distribution, as well as the inclusion of additional controls for firm‐specific time‐varying characteristics. The results show that computer‐capital‐intensive firms adjust contract employment less in response to transitory demand shocks, highlighting how early‐stage computerization, flexible labour arrangements, and weather‐induced demand fluctuations jointly shape labour demand in developing economies.
中文摘要
发展中国家技术采用如何影响企业在本地需求波动时对灵活、低保障劳动力的使用？本文研究计算机资本密集度如何调节企业应对外生、天气驱动的需求冲击时对合同工的使用。利用1999—2000年至2009—2010年印度制造业企业面板数据，我们将企业层面计算机资本存量信息与地区层面降雨冲击相结合，后者会改变农业收入，进而改变本地对制造业产品的需求。我们发现，在应对正向暂时性需求冲击时，计算机资本份额高于平均水平的企业比低于平均水平的企业少雇佣2.32名合同工，相对于合同就业均值而言差异为11.33%。这一效应主要影响从事制造活动的工人，而非外围服务人员。我们的结果在多种计算机资本密集度的替代衡量指标下保持稳健，包括由行业层面美国计算机资本支出分布衍生的外生指标，以及加入企业特定时变特征的额外控制变量。结果表明，计算机资本密集型企业对暂时性需求冲击的合同就业调整更少，凸显了早期计算机化、灵活劳动安排与天气引致的需求波动如何共同塑造发展中经济体的劳动需求。