外商直接投资自由化能否降低金融风险？来自中国医疗健康行业的信息不对称证据

摘要

Does opening a market to foreign investors always benefit domestic firms? China’s 2024 healthcare FDI liberalization offers a rare opportunity to find out. Using a machine-learning distress model and difference-in-differences evidence from 169 listed healthcare firms, we show that liberalization does not uniformly reduce financial risk. Pharmaceutical firms experienced significantly elevated financial vulnerability relative to medical services firms in the immediate post-reform period—consistent with transitional competitive pressures from anticipated foreign entry. Information asymmetry, measured through a novel insider-trading proxy adapted to China’s institutional setting, remains a persistent risk driver that liberalization did not attenuate in the short run. These findings carry a direct warning: policymakers who open markets without complementary disclosure reforms risk concentrating transitional costs on the most exposed incumbent firms. Transparency gaps require dedicated regulatory attention—market opening alone cannot resolve them.