Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
贸易暴露能否解释反全球化投票？
Does trade exposure explain anti-globalization votes?
摘要
We study the local effects of trade exposure and immigration on voting behavior in France over the period 1988–2022. We construct a novel measure of anti-globalization voting that combines the policy positions expressed in presidential candidates’ manifestos with local electoral outcomes. We find that greater exposure to import competition increases anti-globalization voting, whereas export exposure reduces it, consistent with their contrasting effects on French local employment. Immigration also increases anti-globalization voting. Finally, the political effects of imports depend on their composition. While imports of final goods increase anti-globalization voting, imports of intermediate goods reduce support for anti-globalization ideas. This asymmetric effect is consistent with the fact that final goods imports generate employment losses in regions specialized in import-competing industries, whereas intermediate goods imports tend to support domestic production and employment within global value chains.
中文摘要
我们研究了1988—2022年间贸易暴露与移民对法国投票行为的局部影响。我们构建了一种新的反全球化投票度量，将总统候选人竞选纲领中表达的政策立场与地方选举结果相结合。我们发现，进口竞争暴露程度越高，反全球化投票越多，而出口暴露则会减少反全球化投票，这与二者对法国地方就业的相反影响相一致。移民同样会增加反全球化投票。最后，进口的政治效应取决于其构成。最终品进口会增加反全球化投票，而中间品进口则会降低对反全球化理念的支持。这种非对称效应与以下事实相一致：最终品进口会在专业化于进口竞争产业的地区造成就业损失，而中间品进口往往在全球价值链内支撑国内生产与就业。