Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
动态偏好“逆转”与时间不一致性
Dynamic Preference "Reversals" and Time Inconsistency
摘要
We study the possibility of identifying time-inconsistent preferences in empirical designs where preferences are elicited in advance at time 0 and then again at time 1, after the agent receives additional information. For single-peaked preferences, time consistency is rejected only when the time-1 ranking between a pair of alternatives is always the reverse of the time-0 ranking. We establish variations and generalizations of this result. Since such stark reversals are rarely observed, choice-revision designs require stronger identification assumptions than perhaps previously appreciated. But we show that time inconsistency is identifiable in environments where preferences over alternatives can be “priced out.” (JEL D11, D15, D83, D86)
中文摘要
我们研究了在实证设计中识别时间不一致偏好的可能性，其中偏好是在时间0提前引出，并在时间1（代理人获得额外信息后）再次引出。对于单峰偏好，只有当时间1对某对备选方案的排序始终与时间0的排序相反时，时间一致性才被拒绝。我们建立了这一结果的变体与推广形式。由于这种截然相反的逆转现象极少被观察到，选择修正设计所需的识别假设可能比以往所认知的更为严格。但我们证明，在能够对备选方案偏好进行“定价”的环境中，时间不一致性是可识别的。（JEL D11, D15, D83, D86）