Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
美国经济状况与监禁：来自密苏里州1850—1930年的证据
Economic Conditions and Incarceration in the United States: Evidence from Missouri, 1850–1930
摘要
This paper investigates the relationship between economic conditions and incarceration in the postbellum United States. Leveraging unique administrative prison records in Missouri from 1850 to 1931 and the differential exposure to national agricultural price changes across counties, I find that positive economic shocks reduce prison admission rates for all crime categories, and negative shocks increase prison admission rates, with the relationship being larger for negative shocks. Although racial disparities in incarceration emerged after Reconstruction, with Black prison admission rates five times higher than white rates, I find no evidence that economic conditions affected prison admission rates differently across racial groups.
中文摘要
本文考察了美国内战后期经济状况与监禁之间的关系。利用密苏里州1850年至1931年间独特的行政监狱记录，以及各县对全国农产品价格变动的不同暴露程度，我发现正向经济冲击降低了所有犯罪类别的入狱率，而负向经济冲击则提高了入狱率，且负向冲击的影响更大。尽管重建时期后监禁中的种族差异显现，黑人入狱率是白人的五倍，但我未发现经济状况对不同种族群体的入狱率有差异化影响的证据。