Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
早期罗马帝国的经济动态：来自铅污染、铸币、天气与战争的洞见
Economic dynamics of the Early Roman Empire: Insights from lead pollution, coinage, weather, and war
摘要
This study examines the relationship between anthropogenic lead pollution recorded in Greenland ice cores and economic dynamics during the Pax Romana (27 BC–180 AD), a period of relative political, institutional and technological stability in the Early Roman Empire. Our findings reveal that approximately one-fourth of the annual variability in lead pollution during this period can be explained by summer temperatures, silver coin output, and warfare – three factors plausibly linked to fluctuations of the Empire’s economy. Using annual time-series analysis, we integrate high-resolution paleoclimatic, paleoenvironmental, and cliometric data to investigate short-run economic dynamics in an ancient society. Specifically, our results suggest that warmer summers, which likely boosted agricultural yields, were positively associated with increased economic activity. In contrast, higher production of silver coins and periods of warfare were associated with lower levels of lead emissions, suggesting that these factors were associated with periods of weaker aggregate economic activity. Our analysis also provides formal statistical support for the hypothesis that historical lead pollution levels contain valuable information about economic activity in ancient Europe, thereby corroborating a highly debated claim in the literature.
中文摘要
本研究探讨了格陵兰冰芯中记录的人为铅污染与罗马和平时期（公元前27年至公元180年）经济动态之间的关系，这一时期是早期罗马帝国政治、制度和技术相对稳定的阶段。研究发现，该时期铅污染年际变异的约四分之一可由夏季温度、银币产量及战争活动解释，这三者与帝国经济的波动存在合理关联。通过年度时间序列分析，我们整合了高分辨率古气候、古环境及计量历史数据，以探究古代社会的短期经济动态。具体而言，研究结果表明，较为温暖的夏季可能促进农业收成，并与经济活动的增加呈正相关。相反，银币产量的增加及战争时期则与铅排放水平下降相关，暗示这些因素与总体经济活动减弱时期相关联。我们的分析还为历史铅污染水平蕴含古代欧洲经济活动有价值信息这一假说提供了正式的统计支持，从而印证了文献中一个备受争议的观点。