Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
塑造欧洲陆上风电平准化度电成本的经济、社会、环境与制度因素：来自空间面板模型的证据
Economic, social, environmental, and institutional factors shaping onshore wind LCOE in Europe: Evidence from spatial panel models
摘要
We investigate how macro-level factors—economic, social, environmental, and institutional—shape the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for onshore wind energy in Europe over time, while accounting for spatial dependence. Using a balanced annual panel of 10 OECD European countries from 2011 to 2023 , we estimate a Spatial Durbin Model with two-way fixed effects, which receives the strongest overall support among the non-spatial and spatial models considered. By decomposing total impacts into direct and indirect impacts, we find that macro-level factors are associated with LCOE through domestic and spatial spillover channels. Stronger economic and institutional performance is associated with lower LCOE through both channels, with spatial spillovers larger than the corresponding direct impacts. Higher emission intensity is associated with higher LCOE through both channels, whereas higher human development is associated with higher LCOE primarily through the domestic channel. Among the control variables, the association with LCOE is negative for cumulative onshore wind electricity generation and cumulative wind energy patents, but positive for renewable electricity generation share. Overall, our findings highlight cross-country spatial dependence and suggest that onshore wind energy cost-reduction policies in Europe should consider regional coordination rather than focusing exclusively on national conditions.
中文摘要
我们考察宏观经济、社会、环境与制度等宏观层面因素如何在考虑空间依赖性的情况下，随时间推移影响欧洲陆上风能的平准化度电成本（LCOE）。我们使用2011年至2023年10个OECD欧洲国家的平衡年度面板数据，估计了一个双向固定效应的空间杜宾模型；在所考虑的非空间与空间模型中，该模型获得总体最强支持。通过将总影响分解为直接影响与间接影响，我们发现宏观层面因素通过国内渠道与空间溢出渠道与LCOE相关。更强的经济与制度表现通过两种渠道均与更低的LCOE相关，且空间溢出大于相应的直接影响。更高的排放强度通过两种渠道均与更高的LCOE相关，而更高的人类发展水平主要通过国内渠道与更高的LCOE相关。在控制变量中，累计陆上风电发电量与累计风能专利与LCOE的关联为负，而可再生电力发电占比与LCOE的关联为正。总体而言，我们的发现凸显了跨国空间依赖性，并表明欧洲陆上风能降本政策应考虑区域协调，而非仅聚焦于各国自身条件。