Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
经济不确定性与生育周期：20世纪美国的婴儿潮与生育低谷
Economic uncertainty and fertility cycles: baby boom and busts in twentieth century USA
摘要
Using variation across US counties and states in the volatility of income growth over the course of the twentieth century, we identify a negative effect of economic uncertainty on fertility. Our findings contribute to the unraveling of the determinants of the post-WWII baby boom: the decline in economic uncertainty endured by women born in 1910 compared to that of those born in 1933 can account for an increase in fertility by 0.4 to 0.6 child, which is about 45% to 67.5% of the change across these cohorts.
中文摘要
本文利用20世纪美国各县和州收入增长波动性的差异，识别出经济不确定性对生育率的负向影响。我们的发现有助于揭示二战后婴儿潮的决定因素：与1933年出生的女性相比，1910年出生的女性所经历的经济不确定性下降，可以解释生育率提高0.4至0.6个孩子，这约占这些队列之间变化的45%至67.5%。