Effects, spatio-temporal evolution, chain transmission mechanism and precision governance of farmland resource curse in China: Based on Farmland Resource Curse Index and multi-scale raster data with causal identification

摘要

In China, a persistent phenomenon known as the “grain-wealth inversion” has been observed, characterized by “grain-producing counties with poor economies”. At its core, this represents an institutional misallocation of opportunity costs under the farmland protection system, manifesting as “localized costs and socialized benefits”. This phenomenon is fundamentally distinct from the curse associated with mineral resource dependency. Given the prevalent deficiencies in existing research, including imprecise causal identification, unverified chain transmission mechanisms, a lack of refined quantitative tools, and the absence of precise governance strategies, this study utilized multi-source raster data from five periods spanning 2000–2020. It integrated econometric causal inference with GIS spatial analysis techniques to conduct a systematic, multi-scale research across “provincial-city-county-grid” levels. This study constructed a Farmland Resource Curse Index (FRCI), validated transmission mechanism through a cross-verification approach employing causal mediation effects and path analysis, thereby establishing a multi-level causal evidence chain encompassing “statistical correlation — single-path identification — multi-path verification — instrumental-variable corroboration”. The primary findings were as follows: 1) China was subject to the farmland resource curse (FRC), with the instrumental variable method confirming the direction and magnitude of the benchmark regression. 2) The FRCI represented a spatial distribution with generally higher values in the north and lower values in the southeast, showing a gradual overall increase over the past two decades and a northeastward migration in its center of gravity by 213.63 km, with the most notable intensification of the curse observed in major grain-producing areas. 3) Abundant farmland resource endowments (FREs) impeded economic growth through six parallel pathways and five chain pathways, with the total chain effect contributing to 48.89% of the overall impact, thereby confirming the transmission framework of “FREs → land use → factor allocation → structural transformation → economic growth”. 4) The uneven distribution of FRE further intensified regional disparities in the curse’s severity, with significant regional heterogeneity evident in effects. Based on these findings, a dual-dimensional precise governance system was proposed, centered on the FRCI and incorporating “zoning regulation and control + hierarchical governance”, to provide a scientific foundation for balancing national food security with regional coordinated development.