新兴市场、家庭异质性与汇率政策

摘要

I argue that household heterogeneity plays a key role in the transmission of aggregate shocks in emerging market economies. Using Mexico’s 1995 crisis as a case study, I document that whether a household works in the tradable or non-tradable sector is a crucial determinant of income and consumption losses: households tied to the non-tradable sector suffered substantially larger losses, regardless of other characteristics. To account for this fact, I build a New Keynesian small open economy model featuring two dimensions of household heterogeneity: uninsurable sector-specific income and limited participation in financial markets. Both dimensions shape how shocks propagate, typically amplifying their effects in the non-tradable sector while dampening them in the tradable sector. On the policy side, the welfare cost associated with lack of exchange rate flexibility is higher when households are heterogeneous, though sectoral preferences over such flexibility diverge when policy is restricted to simple interest rate rules.