Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
英国财富税的经验基础：测度、识别与直接微观模拟
Empirical foundations for a UK wealth tax: measurement, identification and direct microsimulation
摘要
This paper evaluates a recurrent UK wealth tax by separating macroeconomic identification from direct revenue microsimulation. The historical analysis constructs a Wealth‐linked Tax Mix and a Statutory Pressure Index for 2006–7 to 2023–4, but weak‐instrument‐robust inference does not identify a sufficiently precise GDP effect. The principal analysis uses linked Wealth and Assets Survey round 8 microdata covering 15,128 Great Britain households and 32,271 persons. Observation‐level microsimulation permits asset exclusions before thresholding, re‐ranking after each design change, alternative tax units, and joint wealth–income liquidity incidence. A 1% household wealth tax above £1 million excluding private pensions generates £12.6 billion in gross statutory liability, £9.5 billion in collectible revenue before explicit administration, and approximately £9.0 billion in illustrative long‐run direct net revenue. Re‐ranking reduces the central tax revenue estimate by 41% relative to the earlier grouped comparator. Around 41,000 households face both high liability relative to income and insufficient liquid resources. The results support transparent design ranges and targeted deferral rather than a single macroeconomic forecast.
中文摘要
本文在将宏观经济识别与直接收入微观模拟相分离的基础上，评估了一种周期性英国财富税。历史分析构建了2006-7至2023-4年的财富关联税制结构和法定压力指数，但弱工具稳健推断未能识别出足够精确的GDP效应。主分析使用关联的财富与资产调查第8轮微观数据，覆盖15,128个大不列颠家庭和32,271名个人。观测层面的微观模拟允许在设定阈值前进行资产排除、在每次设计变更后重新排序、采用替代性税收单位，以及考察财富—收入联合流动性归宿。对超过100万英镑的家庭财富征收1%的财富税并排除私人养老金，产生126亿英镑的法定总负债、在明确行政管理成本前95亿英镑的可征收收入，以及约90亿英镑的示意性长期直接净收入。与早先的分组比较基准相比，重新排序使中央税收收入估计降低41%。约41,000个家庭同时面临相对于收入较高的负债和流动性资源不足。研究结果支持透明的设计区间和有针对性的延期安排，而非单一的宏观经济预测。