Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
欧洲经济货币联盟与贸易：欧元对农业部门的影响
EMU and trade: The euro effect on the agricultural sector
摘要
This paper uses a structural gravity model to examine the partial equilibrium effects of the European Monetary Union (EMU) on trade for the agricultural sector. We find robust evidence that EMU has increased trade both between members and between EMU and non‐EMU member countries. This positive link is found in most member countries. Moreover, the overall impact of EMU on trade between members has not been different for late and early joiners. The year‐by‐year and period‐by‐period analyses show that the effect of EMU is increasing over time. In addition, we conduct a counterfactual general equilibrium experiment that reveals a remarkable welfare‐enhancing effect of EMU for its member countries.
中文摘要
本文运用结构引力模型，考察了欧洲货币联盟（EMU）对农业部门贸易的部分均衡效应。我们发现有力证据表明，EMU不仅促进了成员国之间的贸易，也增进了EMU与非成员国之间的贸易。这一正向关联在大多数成员国中均有所体现。此外，EMU对成员国间贸易的总体影响在后期加入国与早期加入国之间并无显著差异。逐年及逐期分析显示，EMU的效应随时间递增。进一步地，我们实施了一项反事实一般均衡实验，结果表明EMU为其成员国带来了显著的福利增进效应。