Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
能源强度与碳调整：阈值估计与结构异质性
Energy Intensity and Carbon Adjustment: Threshold Estimates and Structural Heterogeneity
摘要
Decarbonisation policy often assumes that improvements in energy efficiency translate into reductions in carbon intensity in broadly similar ways across economies. This study examines whether this relationship varies with the energy intensity of industrial production. Using a panel of thirty-five economies with sufficient comparable data over 2000–2021, the analysis applies panel threshold methods to the relationship between industrial energy intensity and carbon performance. The estimated relationship is positive on both sides of the candidate threshold but weaker at higher levels of energy intensity. However, country-clustered bootstrap inference does not reject the null of no threshold, and the likelihood-ratio profile indicates substantial uncertainty around its location. The estimated boundary is therefore interpreted as a candidate segmentation rather than a statistically established structural break. Green technological activity shows significantly different associations across observations below and above the candidate threshold, although its estimated association above the threshold is not statistically significant. Dynamic sensitivity analyses indicate substantial persistence in carbon performance, while providing no robust evidence that the difference between the energy-intensity slopes persists once past carbon performance is taken into account. Overall, the results indicate heterogeneity in the relationship between industrial energy intensity and carbon performance but do not support a sharply defined division between structural regimes. This limits strong claims about structural lock-in and suggests that carbon adjustment may depend on production context.
中文摘要
脱碳政策往往假定，能效提升会以各经济体间大体相似的方式转化为碳强度下降。本研究考察这一关系是否随工业生产能源强度而变化。研究使用2000—2021年间具有足够可比数据的35个经济体面板，采用面板门槛方法分析工业能源强度与碳绩效之间的关系。估计结果显示，在候选门槛两侧该关系均为正，但在更高能源强度水平上较弱。然而，国家聚类自助法推断未能拒绝不存在门槛的原假设，似然比剖面表明其位置存在较大不确定性。因此，所估计的边界被解释为候选分段，而非统计上确立的结构性断点。绿色技术活动在候选门槛上下观测值之间表现出显著不同的关联，尽管其在门槛以上的估计关联在统计上不显著。动态敏感性分析表明碳绩效具有显著持续性，但未提供稳健证据表明在考虑过去碳绩效后，能源强度斜率之间的差异仍然存在。总体而言，结果表明工业能源强度与碳绩效之间的关系存在异质性，但不支持结构体制之间存在清晰划分。这限制了对结构性锁定的强主张，并表明碳调整可能取决于生产背景。