Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
估计危机时期的滞后效应
Estimating Hysteresis Effects in Times of Crises
摘要
One of the most puzzling facts following the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) is that output in both advanced and emerging economies did not return to its pre‐crisis trend, contrary to the predictions of standard macroeconomic models. This paper analyzes the factors behind output hysteresis, with a special focus on the role played by financial crises. The paper shows that financial crises are associated with medium‐term output and total factor productivity (TFP) losses, suggesting that these crises lead to “scarring” effects on the supply side of the economy. The paper also examines how additional factors, such as persistently low investment rates, research and development (R&D), and the effects of currency and debt crises, contribute to these permanent losses. Our empirical findings are broadly consistent with models featuring endogenous productivity and capital‐embodied technological change, which suggest that a contraction in investment is a key factor that limits the adoption of new technologies, ultimately reducing medium‐term TFP and output.
中文摘要
全球金融危机（GFC）之后最令人困惑的事实之一是，发达经济体和新兴经济体的产出均未回归至危机前趋势，这与标准宏观经济模型的预测相悖。本文分析产出迟滞背后的因素，特别关注金融危机所扮演的角色。本文表明，金融危机与中期产出和全要素生产率（TFP）损失相关联， suggesting that these crises lead to “scarring” effects on the supply side of the economy. 本文还考察了其他因素，如持续低投资率、研究与开发（R&D），以及货币和债务危机的影响，如何促成这些永久性损失。我们的实证发现与具有内生生产率和资本体现型技术变化的模型大体一致，这些模型表明投资收缩是限制新技术采用的关键因素，最终降低中期TFP和产出。