Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
评估物流绩效对贸易的影响：来自不同引力模型方法的证据
Estimating the Effects of Logistics Performance on Trade: Evidence From Different Gravity Model Approaches
摘要
This paper examines the effects of logistics performance on international trade. A country's logistics capacity is measured by the Logistics Performance Index ( LPI ), compiled by the World Bank, which gives comparable country‐level data for 166 countries in six waves. We use the LPI in different gravity model approaches, comparing the results from fixed effects Poisson regressions, relative gravity, and a Probit estimation. We construct a bilateral trade dataset with 27,638 bilateral trade relationships from CEPIIs trade database. The results of all used approaches indicate sizable and significant positive effects of logistics performance on international trade. While positive and significant for all regions, the size of logistics effect on trade differs across the regions. The findings give relevant policy implications and stress the need to improve the logistics system and associated performance to encourage trade.
中文摘要
本文考察了物流绩效对国际贸易的影响。一个国家的物流能力由世界银行编制的物流绩效指数（LPI）衡量，该指数提供了166个国家在六轮调查中可比较的国家层面数据。我们在不同的引力模型方法中使用LPI，比较固定效应泊松回归、相对引力以及Probit估计的结果。我们构建了一个包含来自CEPII贸易数据库的27,638个双边贸易关系的双边贸易数据集。所有所用方法的结果均表明，物流绩效对国际贸易具有可观且显著的正向影响。尽管对所有地区而言均为正向且显著，但物流对贸易影响的规模因地区而异。这些发现提供了相关的政策启示，并强调了改善物流系统及相关绩效以促进贸易的必要性。