Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
全球作物面积弹性的估计：贝叶斯方法
Estimation of Global Crop Area Elasticities: A Bayesian Approach
摘要
This study estimates the crop‐specific area elasticities for 10 countries or regions using Bayesian methods to ensure that the results are consistent with the expectations suggested by economic theory and applied economics. Important outcomes are as follows. First, a rich set of elasticities and first derivatives are provided that go far beyond any recently published paper to support applied economic analysis of market commodity supplies and changing land use of key crop‐producing countries and regions. Second, double‐cropping can induce unexpected area responses, such as positive cross‐effects. Third, the expected returns of the major crops in a country, such as corn in the United States and soybeans in Brazil, potentially lead to a greater increase in the total crop area than other crops. Fourth, total land constraints reduce parameter uncertainty but highlight potential differences between reallocating land versus cropland expansion and contraction.
中文摘要
本研究采用贝叶斯方法估算了10个国家或地区的作物特定面积弹性，以确保结果与经济理论和应用经济学的预期相一致。主要结论如下。第一，本文提供了一套丰富的弹性和一阶导数，远超近期发表的任何论文，可支持对主要作物生产国家和地区的市场商品供给及土地利用变化的应⽤经济分析。第二，复种可能引发意外的面积反应，例如正向交叉效应。第三，一国主要作物的预期收益，如美国的玉米和巴西的大豆，可能比其他作物带来更大的总作物面积增长。第四，总土地约束降低了参数不确定性，但凸显了土地重新配置与耕地扩张和收缩之间的潜在差异。