Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
明清中国适度生育的进化优势：统一增长视角
Evolutionary advantage of moderate fertility during Ming–Qing China: a unified growth perspective
摘要
Using genealogical records of Chinese families from 1300 to 1920, this paper examines how the fundamental wheels of change identified by Unified Growth Theory operated within the Ming–Qing context. It finds that families with moderate fertility were more likely to attain higher levels of education and to experience greater reproductive success across generations, revealing a trade-off between high fertility and long-term lineage outcomes. Employing negative binomial regression and instrumental variable methods, the study shows that a preference for child quality conferred an evolutionary advantage—suggesting that, if this evolutionary pattern was present globally during the epoch of stagnation, it may have been central to the demographic transition and the emergence of modern economic growth.
中文摘要
本文利用1300年至1920年间中国家族谱系记录，考察统一增长理论所识别的变革基本动力在明清时期的运作机制。研究发现，适度生育水平的家族更可能获得更高教育成就，并在代际间实现更优的繁衍成功，揭示了高生育率与长期宗族发展之间的权衡关系。通过采用负二项回归与工具变量方法，研究表明对子女质量的偏好赋予了进化优势——这意味着，若该进化模式在停滞时代全球范围内普遍存在，则可能对人口转型与现代经济增长的出现具有核心作用。