Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
魁北克有机认证的退出动态
Exit dynamics from organic certification in Quebec
摘要
In Quebec, organic‐certification exits remained persistently high at 5% –7% annually over 2021–2025, while entries fell sharply from 10.8% to 3.4%. By 2025, exits exceeded entries for the first time, contracting the certified stock and reversing a decade of expansion. Using enterprise‐level data spanning all product categories, this paper documents three life‐cycle exit patterns from organic certification. First, the exit hazard follows an inverted‐U shape, peaking around the third year. Second, more than 50% of exits occur within five years of certification. Third, enterprises certified in more product categories face lower exit risk. A calibrated dynamic model with heterogeneous time preferences and idiosyncratic pest shocks can account for the observed hump‐shaped hazard through the differential exit of impatient versus patient producers, and a declining tail consistent with the selection of more patient producers over time. Policy counterfactuals indicate that an 80% pesticide tax raises ten‐year survival from 81.0% to 89.3%, while a 1% productivity penalty in organic production lowers 10‐year survival to 71.8%. These results suggest that long‐term retention is shaped by behavioural heterogeneity in time preferences and exposure to ecological (pest) risk. The findings point toward policies that combine early transitional support with measures that reduce pest‐related risks.
中文摘要
在魁北克，2021—2025年间有机认证退出率持续高企，年均为5%—7%，而进入率则从10.8%大幅降至3.4%。到2025年，退出首次超过进入，使认证存量收缩，并逆转了长达十年的扩张趋势。本文使用涵盖所有产品类别的企业层面数据，记录了有机认证的三种生命周期退出模式。第一，退出风险呈倒U形，并在第三年前后达到峰值。第二，超过50%的退出发生在获得认证后的五年内。第三，在更多产品类别中获得认证的企业面临更低的退出风险。一个校准了异质性时间偏好与特异性病虫害冲击的动态模型，可以通过不耐心的生产者相对于耐心的生产者差异化退出，解释所观察到的驼峰形风险，而递减的尾部则与随着时间推移更耐心生产者被选择留存相一致。政策反事实表明，80%的农药税将使十年生存率从81.0%提高到89.3%，而有机生产中1%的生产率惩罚会使十年生存率降至71.8%。这些结果表明，长期留存受到时间偏好中的行为异质性和生态（病虫害）风险暴露的影响。研究结果指向将早期转型支持与降低病虫害相关风险的措施相结合的政策。